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Wittner Fundamentals

Many, among whom I include myself, certainly did not expect that the price of the barrel of oil exceeded the US $60 towards the middle of this year. For those who still yearn for better times of the price of crude oil, must still see it fairly far from their highs. In finding an explanation, in the market is it pointed to weakening of the currency of the United States and by expectations of another decline in us inventories, since corrected upward demand for oil this year. When he spoke with Paola on the subject, she pointed mainly toward the side of speculative movements: there is excess stocks of petroleum that are augmented by the recession that removes volume demand, therefore the price responds to speculative movements. This responds to a change in expectations about the possibility that the recession has touched your floor. He is also entering lots of money into investment funds and hedge funds in futures and indexes oil from a few months ago, told me. Certainly, the change in the expectations of investors that are encouraging to take risks, is causing unexpected movements in the prices of many assets of those who escaped when reigned uncertainty. So we are seeing how the world stock markets have been recovering value, even in emerging markets, and how the euro and the pound sterling strengthened with strength against the dollar while there is no guarantee for such a thing from the point of view of their macroeconomic fundamentals.

And this return of appetite for risk, as commented me Paola, also benefited the oil. Those who are committed to the economic recovery because they have anticipated the upward trend in the price of crude oil. Mike Wittner, global head of oil research of Societe Generale supports the theory of the speculative component but the inflationary side: oil prices have recently been driven more by factors outside the fundamentals than by fundamentals, and this factor It has nothing to do with the fundamentals (of inflation in five years), it seems that he is going to join us for a time.